The Windows UMPCs aren't exactly flying off shelves, but that is understandable since we are waiting for hardware to catch up with Vista. We see commitment from manufacturers to deliver next-generation products in this market and, as performance improves, we can expect more consumer adoption.
Intel's announcement of MID Linux at IDF stirred the UMPC pot again. Apparently, they saw the enthusiasm over the Linux based Nokia internet tablets and wanted to get in on it. What does that mean to the Windows UMPC world?
In the meantime, Nokia showed commitment to small tablets by releasing a successor to the 770 and drafting it into the prestigious N series in the form of the N800. Apple - well - Other than the iPhone, Apple tablet rumors have been stagnant but much desired. Who will win if Microsoft, Apple, and Linux all battle in UMPC space?
You. The consumer. That's who will win.
The Windows market is secure in the business world. Outlook, Office, Exchange, and other Microsoft tools power the enterprise and there's no end in sight for that dominance. There will come a time when we see more UMPCs than laptops on planes as executives ditch their eight pound juggernauts for a light slate that allows them to catch up on their latest news, annotate documents, and choose their own in-flight movie. In the business space, Microsoft will dominate. There are two disadvantages to Windows based UMPCs: Cost (both higher-end hardware and the Windows license) and convincing business users to use them. Like cell phones and laptops, both hurdles will be overcome in time.
The Linux tablets are for the rest of us. Because Linux can do more with less hardware, the boxes can be made with less expensive chips and can trade power for battery life. Additionally, the cost of a Windows license is not rolled into the device so more money is saved right off the top. Linux based tablets can be smaller, cheaper, offer better battery life, and can be distributed with the interface tailored for the hardware on which it was shipped. A Windows interface has to look like Windows, but a Linux interface can look like it was built specifically for the device. The problems Linux tablets face center around either consumer trust and application availability. Too many consumers consider Linux to be a "for geeks only" operating system. Only good user-friendly products can fix that image. As for applications: Nokia realized they did it wrong with the 770 by relying on users to find and manually install software packages. Later on, they released both an updated package manager with "one-click installation" and a searchable application catalog. Developers can now contribute their own applications to said catalog and even ship automatic updates through the package manager. For third party applications on Linux tablets to succeed, they need to either follow this model or find an even better way. The last problem that Linux devices face is a lack of standardization in application distribution. Because Linux can run on so many different devices, developers have to either port their applications to each device or hope some othe developer does the work for them. If a broad range of Linux devices hit the market, the developers need to get together in a consortium and organize a common packaging and distribution method.
As for Apple - well - what can be said about Apple? As the patents pertaining to the iPhone started leaking out, the rumor mill was fierce with Apple Tablet speculation. This will have a market too - in design. Marketers, artists, and advertisers will pay whatever Apple asks of them for an Apple tablet. The "fan-boy" following will eat it up as long as it's marketed with a lowercase "i" in the name. iSlab? iSlate? MacSlate? MacSlate Pro? With Apple's multi-touch patents, the Dashboard, InkWell, and built-in speech recognition, a tablet mac is far overdue. What's stopping Apple? Who knows.
To summarize:
Windows UMPCs:
Pro
- Business market
- Origami Project team
- Already getting feedback from users
- XP Tablet PC Edition obsolete.
- High performance machine required for Vista.
- Licensing costs
Pro
- Lower hardware requirements
- Less licensing costs
- Wide developer base
- Market skepticism
- Lack of software packaging standard.
- "Linux Compatible" doesn't mean anything - yet
Pro
- Building on existing technology and patents
- Market desire for a tablet
- Strict loyalty of fan base
- No Tablet-centric interface (yet)
- Limited developer base
- Possible iPhone or iPod competitor? (Who knows?)
19 comments:
Nice overview of the situation.
When it gets here, I want something I can talk and listen to. I like the cheapness and the freeness of Linux, and I don't want to feel like I'm carrying something that will make me feel like dying if I lose or break it. The N800 is great till the real thing comes along.
LOL.
While I agree with most of what you said, I can't help but think of N800 owners (such as myself) as Linux fanboys.
Let's be realistic: I handed my N800 to my girlfriend (dual degrees in geochemistry and computer science, definitely not "non-technical") and she took one look at package installation, said "BLEH" and handed it back. I used to work as an embedded Linux developer in Ottawa, working on prototype tablet-like devices. Many of our test users said similar things.
Linux while technically spiffy, is still a PITA for the average user. Yes, I know about the grandmas and grandpas running it. My parents did too for awhile. But in the end they bought an Apple and paid the extra money. Not because they were fanatical Apple users, but because Apple *gets* user interfaces. Want to install a package? Drag and drop it into the Applications folder (mostly).
Nokia has been making some big steps lately and I look forward to what's coming next. But we Linux folk really, really need to keep usability in mind. The N800 is better than I expected, but still not there yet (Red Pill anyone?).
Package management, market acceptation, etc. are all valid points against Linux UMPCs, but you left out the biggest problem of the platform: Useful applications!
I look at the 770/N800 platform, and I see a gazillion media players, but not one decent application to read and edit formatted documents. The platform is managed by geek-toy pundits, instead of consumer-minded developers.
I don't blame the punits, mind you, they're perfectly entitled to do their thing. I blame Nokia. For everything. Blèh.
Linux to me is the example of an OS made by developers for developers. And I tell you why. Developers hate to create the Installation Setup. And that´s what you see in Linux. No easy installation setup.
As with the 770/n800, the average joe will probably not install anything on it. And actually...only we, geek - toy pundits install our little geek apps.
My father (who HATES linux) were able to compose and send a email while on go with the 770 with no sweat.
BTW: my little geek-toy Angstron is progressing fast: the memory leak is gone and now we have music. I guess I will release it next weekend (it will be a long weekend-off on Brazil, so I will have the chance to work on it - keep in mind this is my hobby. I have a "respectful" job as a C# .net programmer in daytime that drains all my time).
Seems like a fair overview.
I think Intel have the spilt about right. Until Vista Mobile comes along, a decent group effort on core libraries and GUI layers should yield good results.
I don't think Microsoft is going to succeed in this space. They haven't succeeding in dominating cellphone OSes, despite huge investment and effort, and they won't succeed in UMPCs either.
Cost is going to be a bigger factor than most anything else. The price difference is too big, so people will get the much cheaper option that seems to have slightly fewer features. The OS of the UMPCs does not matter, only that it can interface well with the Windows desktops that business people use.
Geeks are already using Linux devices like Nokia's N800, giving it a strong start. Companies such as Nokia (and hopefully Intel) will fill in the gaps with boring business applications, and small developers may find niches to sell apps on the Maemo platform, just as many do with Palm OS devices.
Just like with Apache, when open source gets started before there's an MS monopoly, it will maintain and grow its dominance despite MS's greatest efforts to displace it.
Why Apple does not enter the tablet market? Because they don't believe in it (as said by his Steevenes).
Now Linux versus Windows on tablets:
my opinion is simply that Linux does not fit there. Why? Simply because there is no way to input data easily. With a tablet, one wants to write on it... not tap a virtual keyboard or hook a real one.
To date the most develop software for tablets is developed by M$. So we are force to stick to it, even if Vista is a failure (although it has a better handwriting recognition!).
Now what do consumers, students, poor guys want? Writing recognition, Word, Powerpoint, mail, fast internet, media player that actually plays everything and PIM applications for a decent price. People don't want products that are half finished, which UI is unpolished, which apps work so so, which UI is not the latest, which are a headache (that's partly why Apple makes money these days!).
We'll see whether MIDs answer these points, but I highly doubt it.
My .02$ :)
I would love for Apple to bring back the Newton with all the new hardware and software that the new gen can provide.
For those looking for a Mac Tablet, check this out...
http://www.axiotron.com/index.php?id=modbook
Great post ThoughtFix.
I had fun reading it and agreeing with a lot of your commentary. I believe there is a place for both but the consumer market that Intel has identified for their Linux MIDs is very volatile. Microsoft on the other hand is "pretending" to target that same space but I beleive they make their money and numbers from the corporate and enterprise markets of this world. Hence they will be better equipped to ride out this storm (and any other that comes along).
I played with a MID this week and I can assure you that at the right price - they rock!
Nicolas, I disagree with your assertion that Microsoft makes the most advanced software for tablets. It's companies like Phatware (PenOffice, Calligrapher), EverNote Corp (EverNote) and VisionObjects (MyScript Notes) that regularly push the envelope.
Microsoft, as usual, is quite good at licensing crippled versions of their products to bundle with the O/S and give users the impression that they are on the forefront.
Hey Karel,
let me clarify my thought. All these soft you mentioned run under Windows. If you were to buy a tablet running windows, would you like to pay an additional fee to have it work properly?
Me too I am dreaming about Pen Office working on Linux :-)
Hugo,
looking to forward to reading your post about MIDs!!!
Nicolas,
It's actually sort of possible to run PenOffice in Linux. All you need (Hah! "all"...) is a Linux pc and an X-server for Windows. You can run remote X programs on your Windows tablet and use PenOffice in Linux. This is possible because PenOffice doesn't try any "smart" trics, but simply presents itself as a standard keyboard and mouse to the software.
It doesn't work with all X-servers and I'd have to trawl through my backups to find the references to the URL, but it works, trust me.
Let me add that IMHO the entire dearth of HWR software in Linux is a chicken-and-egg problem: There's not HWR software for Linux, because there's no Linux tablet platform. And there's no platform, because there's no decent HWR software to implement on it.
No OSS developer appears to find HWR algorythms even remotely interesting enough to work on them, so there's no bootstrapping going on either. And we? We remain stuck on the N800 with the incredibly stinky crap Nokia calls "handwriting recognition software".
Hi,
I mostly agree with your analysis about the portable devices.
Without turning this into an advocacy rant, though, I'd like to take exception with this statement :
"The Windows market is secure in the business world. Outlook, Office, Exchange, and other Microsoft tools power the enterprise and there's no end in sight for that dominance."
I believe this to be :
a) a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy : it can't happen, so let's not try or hope, and accept our fate,
b) perhaps a justified feeling inside the USA, but much less so in Europe (where the "MS tax" and matters of national security are viewed in a different light), and much less again in other parts of the world,
c) inconsistent with the rest of your stance, where you repeatedly treat other forms of transition with a different attitude (which I adhere to) : "people need to understand and come to terms with this, let's give them time, eventually it will happen". Enterprises are made of people too, even if it doesn't always seem so.
I don't say this because I'm a FLOSS religious fanatic who believes that if repeated often enough it will come to pass.
I say this because I'm an IT manager in a French government department which, despite much downsizing over the years, is still a large one with a 65,000 head count.
For the last few years we have been transitioning large trunks of our proprietary IT infrastructure to "libre" equivalents. And not undercover either, like it was done earlier : in the open, under the umbrella of corporate politics and an official roadmap.
As of 1/1/2007 we officially use only OpenDocument and OpenOffice internally (50,000 seats migrated in two years).
Thousands of NT4 file-and-print servers are being replaced with Linux/Samba boxes when they're retired.
When core business apps need a revamp, or new ones are created, client-server and Oracle are replaced with web-mode (Apache/tomcat/java etc.) and postgresql.
And this year we're moving out of Exchange/Outlook.
We're not even a dark horse anymore ; many other departments are on similar tracks. It is estimated that in French government alone, OpenOffice usage is over 400,000 seats and growing.
So, no, it's not impossible. Yes, users bitch and groan all right (especially the bosses), but with appropriate support, communication and dedication, it does happen.
Of course, if money is no object, it is *much* easier to do nothing and just go on paying. But that's a different point :-)
maybe NOK can sweetn things for the 'ordinary' user, cq not linux addicts.
remember almost fathersday: 'just bundle the N800 with navicore'.
i would like such a present from the girls at home. :-))
they did that shortly with the n770 ..... fingers crossed
Nice Article.
I run IT for a couple of branch offices of a large corporation and I have been talking to the business community there about UMPCs and as a whole are barely on the map.
Most of the complaints I hear about when we talk about them is small screen size and weak battery lives. The line of work most of them are involved in is heavy spreadsheet use. These sheets are massive and a total PITA to work on a 12 inch (never mind 5 to 7 inch screen).
For UMPCs to really take off in the business community they need a killer app that is will executed.
Posted from a Sharp Zaurus SL-C3200 running the pdaXii13 akita full 5.4 distro. The most usable Linux UMPC combo out there. :)
Microsoft should continue working on their CE.NET operating system and port Exchange sync with entire Office line to the platform.
There is so much hardware on the market now that can run is very comfortably with the current specs.
Just take a look at some the devices that were made like 5 years ago NEC 900c, Sigmarion, Psion... We now only have more hardware supprt. Why wait for something else?
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